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Contagion spillovers between sovereign and nancial European sector from a CoV aR approach

Idioma del video: Español
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I examine the evolution of contagion indexes between the European financial sector and the sovereign sector (Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain) during the European sovereign credit crisis. Contagion indexes, Delta CoVaR and Delta CoES, reflect events associated with extreme left tail returns and interdependencies between defaults different than those observed in tranquil times. These measures reveal very useful information concerning risk management. I use a copula approach with time-varying parameters to capture changes in the tail dependence between returns in the financial and the sovereign sectors. I employ a Switching Markov model to identify the most stressful moments of the contagion indicators. The results point out the emergence of Greek debt crisis on March 2010 and the vulnerable situation of Spain and Italy in summer 2011 as the main periods where the contagion from the sovereign to the financial sector was stronger. The decrease in contagion was gradual since the speech made by the ECB on July 26th, 2012. The statistical significance of the change in the contagion indicators is checked using boostrap tests.

Javier Ojea
Foundations of Economic Analysis II, Universidad Complutense de Madrid
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